FOMC / US Interest Rate Decision

June 2026 SEP + Dot Plot + Aiden AI Analysis • Stored for learning

Summary of Economic Projections — June 16–17, 2026

Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents

Variable	2026	2027	2028	Longer Run
Change in real GDP	2.2% ▼0.2 Median	2.3% Median	2.2% ▲0.1 Median	2.0% Median
	Mar: 2.4%	Mar: 2.3%	Mar: 2.1%	Mar: 2.0%
	CT: 2.0–2.3%	CT: 2.0–2.4%	CT: 2.0–2.3%	CT: 1.8–2.0%
	Range: 1.8–2.6%	Range: 1.9–2.9%	Range: 1.8–2.6%	Range: 1.7–2.5%
Unemployment rate	4.3% ▼0.1 Median	4.3% Median	4.2% Median	4.2% Median
	Mar: 4.4%	Mar: 4.3%	Mar: 4.2%	Mar: 4.2%
	CT: 4.3–4.4%	CT: 4.2–4.5%	CT: 4.1–4.3%	CT: 4.0–4.3%
	Range: 4.3–4.6%	Range: 4.0–4.6%	Range: 4.0–4.4%	Range: 3.8–4.5%
PCE inflation	3.6% ▲0.9 Median	2.3% ▲0.1 Median	2.0% Median	2.0% Median
	Mar: 2.7%	Mar: 2.2%	Mar: 2.0%	Mar: 2.0%
	CT: 3.5–3.7%	CT: 2.2–2.5%	CT: 2.0–2.1%	CT: 2.0%
	Range: 2.7–4.1%	Range: 1.9–2.8%	Range: 2.0–2.3%	Range: 2.0%
Core PCE inflation	3.3% ▲0.6 Median	2.5% ▲0.3 Median	2.1% ▲0.1 Median	—% Median
	Mar: 2.7%	Mar: 2.2%	Mar: 2.0%	Mar: —
	CT: 3.2–3.5%	CT: 2.3–2.6%	CT: 2.0–2.2%	CT: —
	Range: 2.6–3.5%	Range: 2.0–3.0%	Range: 2.0–2.4%	Range: —
Federal funds rate	3.8% ▲0.4 Median	3.6% ▲0.5 Median	3.4% ▲0.3 Median	3.1% Median
	Mar: 3.4%	Mar: 3.1%	Mar: 3.1%	Mar: 3.1%
	CT: 3.6–4.1%	CT: 3.1–3.9%	CT: 3.1–3.6%	CT: 3.0–3.5%
	Range: 3.4–4.4%	Range: 2.9–4.4%	Range: 2.9–3.9%	Range: 2.9–3.9%

Key Changes vs March SEP

PCE Inflation ↑

3.6% vs 2.7%

Tariff impact pushing 2026 inflation sharply higher

Core PCE ↑

3.3% vs 2.7%

Sticky core above target through 2027

Fed Funds ↑

3.8% vs 3.4%

Fewer cuts — only 1 cut projected for rest of 2026

GDP ↓

2.2% vs 2.4%

Growth revision down, but still above trend

Dot Plot — Appropriate Fed Funds Rate

Each dot represents one FOMC participant's projection (rounded to nearest ⅛%)

Rate %

2026

2027

2028

Longer Run

4.63

4.38

4.13

3.88

3.75

3.63

3.50

3.38

3.13

3.00

2.88

Median

3.88%

3.63%

3.38%

3.13%

Market-Implied Rate Path

OIS FUTURES

Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR) expectations derived from interest rate futures

Next Meeting

63.2% HOLD

Current Fed Funds Target (upper bound)

4.00%

Range 3.75–4.00% · EFFR 3.88%

Terminal Rate (2027-12)

4.50%

Meeting	Implied Rate (Post-Meeting)	Probability of Hike(Cut)/Hold	# of Hikes(Cuts)	Δ vs Current (bps)
Oct 28, 2026	4.00%	63.2%	0.36	+9.0
Dec 9, 2026	4.25%	81.7%	1.18	+29.4
Jan 27, 2027	4.25%	56.3%	1.74	+43.5
Mar 17, 2027	4.50%	75.3%	2.49	+62.3
Apr 28, 2027	4.50%	55.3%	2.94	+73.5
Jun 9, 2027	4.50%	54.3%	3.40	+84.9
Jul 28, 2027	4.50%	79.7%	3.60	+90.0
Sep 15, 2027	4.50%	84.0%	3.76	+94.0
Oct 27, 2027	4.50%	96.0%	3.72	+93.0
Dec 8, 2027	4.50%	100.0%	3.70	+92.5

Source: zq_futures — Market-implied, not a forecast. Updated: Sep 30, 9:06 PM

FOMC Intelligence Report

Aiden will analyze the last 3 FOMC meetings and current economic data from our database to generate a comprehensive pre-decision report. The analysis is stored for learning.