US Oil Market Analysis
WTI Crude Price
USD
Rising
US Production
bpd
Stable
US Inventories
barrels
Rising
Global GDP (2026)
Source: EIA
Expected to Fall
US Rig Count
active
Rising
US Rig Change
vs Prior
Canadian Rig Count
active
Rising
Canadian Rig Change
vs Prior
WTI Crude Price Trend & Projection
- Projection Cone (1 StDev)
- WTI Price
- Base Projection (Trend)
Note: Projections are based on statistical analysis of past 30-day performance and do not guarantee future results. This is not investment advice.
Upcoming Key Events
API Weekly Inventories
Typical Schedule:
Tuesday 4:30 PM ET
EIA Weekly Inventories
Typical Schedule:
Wednesday 10:30 AM ET
OPEC+ JMMC Meeting
Typical Schedule:
Next: Jan 4, 2026
COT Data (CFTC Oil Report)
Typical Schedule:
Friday 3:30 PM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Counts (US Weekly)
Typical Schedule:
Friday 1:00 PM ET
Demand Analysis
🌍 Global Energy Demand Outlook
Global energy demand is expected to increase. A projected World GDP growth of 3.0% for 2026 indicates robust economic activity, even if the growth rate decelerates slightly from the prior year.
Historical World GDP Growth vs. Projection
Annual GDP growth with 2026 forecast from EIA STEO.
- Actual Growth
- Projected Growth
Energy Demand Outlook for 2026
Based on EIA GDP Growth Projections vs. Historical Trends
World
OECD
NONOECD
China
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), OECD Interim Economic Outlook Sep 2026 (China) & TRADARS Economic Database. Analysis by TRADARS AI.
OECD Growth Projections
Real GDP growth. Faster growth usually means more demand for oil and energy.
| Economy | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026 rev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | +0.1 |
| United States | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | +0.2 |
| Euro area | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | +0.2 |
| Germany | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | +0.4 |
| France | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | -0.3 |
| Italy | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | +0.4 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.2 |
| Japan | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | +0.2 |
| Canada | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | -0.3 |
| Australia | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| China | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 0.0 |
| India | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | +0.8 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.6% | -1.8% | 4.1% | -5.0 |
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026 ("Weathering Successive Shocks"), Table 1. Revisions are versus the June 2026 Economic Outlook, in percentage points.
Supply Analysis
Global Rig Counts
U.S. Rigs
599
Canada Rigs
208
World Rigs
1909
Data sourced from Baker Hughes. World count is a sum of U.S., Canada, and International.
OPEC+ Production Stance
Increasing Production
OPEC+ is gradually increasing supply by unwinding previous production cuts.
Key Oil Fundamentals
WTI Crude Price
$90.11
Latest US Production
13.88 mb/d
Inventory Signal
Influencing Factors
US Crude Oil Inventories vs 5-Year Average
Latest Inventory Snapshot - Week 40
Current US Crude Stock
427.32M
Barrels
5-Year Average Stock
419.53M
Barrels
7.79M Barrels Above 5-Year Average
- 5-Year Seasonal Range
Gasoline Prices & CPI Impact
US Regular Gasoline — Weekly Price History
Gasoline CPI vs Headline CPI — Year-over-Year
Gasoline prices are a key CPI driver. When gas CPI spikes, headline CPI follows — energy is ~7% of the CPI basket but accounts for outsized volatility.
- Gasoline CPI YoY
- Headline CPI YoY
- Gas Price ($/gal)
Price Projection Methodology
The 90-day price projection for WTI Crude is generated using a purely statistical model based on recent price action. It combines a linear trend with a volatility cone to create a probable price path. Below is a transparent breakdown of the methodology.
Base Projection: 30-Day Linear Regression
The core of the projection is a trend line fitted to the last 30 days of WTI closing prices. This captures the market's recent momentum.
- Fit a Trend Line: A straight line is fitted to the price data using the least squares method. The equation of this line is:
where `m` is the slope (the recent trend) and `c` is the intercept.Price = m * (Day) + c - Extrapolate the Trend: The model extends this line 90 days into the future. This forms the "Base Projection" and assumes the recent 30-day trend will continue.
Projection Cone: 30-Day Historical Volatility
The cone around the base projection represents the probable range of prices, calculated using historical volatility. It provides a statistical measure of uncertainty.
- Calculate Daily Returns: We first calculate the daily logarithmic returns for the past 30 days to measure daily price fluctuations.
Daily Return = ln(Price_Today / Price_Yesterday) - Measure Volatility: The standard deviation of these daily returns is calculated. This gives us the 30-day historical daily volatility.
Daily Volatility = StDev(Daily Returns) - Project the Cone: The cone is projected by adding and subtracting the expected standard deviation for future dates. The deviation grows over time, causing the cone to widen.
The cone displayed represents a 1 standard deviation range, which statistically contains the price approximately 68% of the time if future volatility resembles the past 30 days.Cone Boundary = Base Projection ± (Daily Volatility * sqrt(Days Ahead) * Base Projection)
Disclaimer
This price projection is a model-based forecast derived from historical data. It is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance and seasonal trends are not guarantees of future results. Real-world events, market volatility, and other factors can cause actual prices to deviate significantly from projections. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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